Randomly Pushing Buttons

Hold That Elevator!
When you randomly push buttons, you never know what floor you’ll end up on.

Before my current circumstances, and before I was a photographer (see above), I used to make music for a living. Specifically, weird-ass techno/electronic music that many people found difficult or annoying. One of the ways I would find sonic inspiration was to use audio software to generate random sounds. I would record this stream of noisy squawkiness, sift through a lot of garbage, and occasionally find a useful gem. I would take these little bits of useful audio and turn them into gritty, weird dance music.

It’s possible to find dedicated software that dives deeply into finding non-obvious, non-linear connections between “features” of price data. For example, we can ask ourselves if today’s high of the price of oil is above its three-day moving average, and the S&P 500’s closing price is below yesterday’s open, will gold go up the next day? Continue reading Randomly Pushing Buttons

It Told You So.

On February 17th, we got a signal from Matt’s Breadth Indicator (aka “The 30% Up/Down in a Quarter Diffusion Index”…can you see why I just called it after myself?) to get the heck out of the market. Or at least to put on our Danger Spectacles and tighten your Volatility Helmets. You would be excused a week later for asking what the problem was. The problem of course manifested itself shortly thereafter. We are now into a second period of closing below our initial “get out!” period.

See? The indicator told you so. Even when the S&P 500 seemed to be saying otherwise.

Does this mean the markets are going to drop to the ground like some bunker-busting price-bomb? Er…I dunno. It’s just an indicator, not a prognosticator!