Back in June of 2016, I wrote this post about random entries and trailing exits. It turns out (on average) that you can beat buy-and-hold of the S&P 500 by simply buying members of the S&P 100 randomly, as long as you a) have a market-timing filter, and 2) have a trailing stop of 20%. Yes that’s right, just pick them at random! Here are the details of that original ‘system’ (it’s not really a system, more of a curiosity): Continue reading All About the Exits…Revisited
The indicator (more info here) has turned yellow. Does this mean pour all your money into equities? Not at all. If the indicator stays above the 75 level for ten days, it turns green. THEN you invest everything you’ve got.
Mmm, perhaps not. It’s just an indicator. Use at your own risk.
Which color do you like better? Green or brown? I’m partial to the green curve myself. That green curve comes from writing puts…sort of. Writing puts can be a lower volatility play that makes you money in choppy or flat markets, falls more softly in down markets, and seriously under-performs when the market goes on a tear upward.
Happy new year! It’s that time again, when everyone with a blog does a wrap up of the previous year. Here’s my look-back.
Many of you follow along with the “+/-30% per quarter wider-market breadth indicator”. Which is too much of a mouthful, so I’ve humbly named it after myself instead. I wanted to provide an update since I’ve been tracking it for awhile.
Aren’t calendars wonderful? A couple of days ago, up pops a reminder on my calendar to revisit a post I did a year ago. At the very beginning of 2016, I wrote a post on whether yearly performance was mean-reverting, and found some interesting things. You might want to go back and take a look first, before you continue reading here.