Pop or Drop part 2: Big Moves Upward

In the last post (here), I examined what happened after a stock moved down a significant multiple of its previous day’s Average True Range (ATR20 in this case). Stocks tended to have up days on day 1 and days 3-5, with a down day on day 2 as an average. What about bursts upward? Are they the opposite? Would they make a good shorting opportunity?

Continue reading Pop or Drop part 2: Big Moves Upward

Settle For Oil

Oil Rigs

Above: long-exposure nighttime shot of oil rigs off the coast of California.

Strange things happen to options and futures on fairly predictable dates. Options expiration dates, contract settlement dates…these are trading days where – and this is just my theory – some traders just want to get out of a trade by any means necessary. So it can, in theory, lead to behaviors that can’t easily be arbitraged away. Best theory I’ve had today. Continue reading Settle For Oil