Settle For Oil

Oil Rigs

Above: long-exposure nighttime shot of oil rigs off the coast of California.

Strange things happen to options and futures on fairly predictable dates. Options expiration dates, contract settlement dates…these are trading days where – and this is just my theory – some traders just want to get out of a trade by any means necessary. So it can, in theory, lead to behaviors that can’t easily be arbitraged away. Best theory I’ve had today. Continue reading Settle For Oil

Two Swing Trade Systems (Part 2)

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Yesterday I discussed two swing-trade systems that work pretty well in out-of-sample data. While each works differently, they overlap enough that you don’t get any benefit from running them both at the same time. One great thing about these two systems is that they’re dead simple to manage. Trade at the open or the close, simple math, etc etc.

I will repeat the caveat from yesterday: these trades average <1% gain per trade. You must have sufficient capital and/or a low/nonexistent commission fee to make these work. While you can use leveraged ETFs or account leverage to help increase the profit/commission ratio, you also increase your chance of a catastrophic hole in your money.

In the lead image, you can see that I have indicators for both RSI and PIRDPO. PIRDPO occurs more frequently, and the RSI trades are a complete subset of the PIRDPO trades (during this particular time frame). There is no benefit to trading both systems.

Continue reading Two Swing Trade Systems (Part 2)

Two Swing Trade Systems (Part 1)

In my recent posts I’ve made reference to various swing-trade systems I’ve developed, which I’ve used as data to discuss things like correlation, diversification and the value of leveraged ETFs. I’ve had a number of people say “hey, what are these systems you’re referencing?” The short answer is: they’re not something I’m discussing publicly. “But that’s not fair!” you cry. “Everything should be free!” Yeah OK, I see your point.

Continue reading Two Swing Trade Systems (Part 1)