I have been very quiet on my blog recently. It’s not because I’ve stopped trading. Far from it! However, I haven’t been doing much in the way of active research or strategy design. I’m currently trading three strategies frequently and another two occasionally (fewer signals). The screenshot above is my account (red) vs SPY (blue).
I was underperforming for a while and jettisoned a strategy that promised more than it could deliver. Then the short side really did me well during the COVID panic. Since then, IPO-related trades have been boiling over. Can’t complain!
This graphic really shows how effective the Breadth Indicator can be. Sure, after the indicator turned red, there was a little profit to be had – and then lost. It did foretell the upcoming volatility though. I’m still firmly out of long-term trading.
I was just telling my wife the other day: “hey look at my breadth indicator. The market is going up but the indicator has turned red. Things are looking dicey.” Sure enough, it has acted as an early warning system.
I use this to time my long-term investments. Unfortunately, the recent market turmoil has bitten my short-term trading too. It sucks when you get stung on the long AND the short end. Oh well, it’s only temporary…
I have been quiet but busy, I assure you. I’ve come up with an interesting system that trades dividend-paying stocks on a <24 hour basis, and I've also been down the Python-coding rabbit hole, creating an automated script to trade using Alpaca brokerage. I hope to have more info soon.