COT Momentum: A Good Week Next Week?

I track the weekly change in the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s “Commitments of Traders” report. This report provides the number of futures contracts committed to each week by large institutional traders, hedge funds etc. While it doesn’t predict the future, it can tell you what the Big Money thinks the future will be.┬áSometimes that’s the same thing!

I graph a short momentum indicator of the change in the ‘long’ position from week to week. Next week looks like it might be an ‘up’ week, at least for the NASDAQ and S&P 500. The Dow shows a declining momentum, although it’s still positive. Caveat emptor.

One thing to keep in mind is that the data shows the state of the futures market through Tuesday, but the report isn’t released until Friday. So there’s a delay there, where many things can happen.

The green line is the SPY ETF, used as a stand-in for the S&P 500. The other lines are the momentum indicators.

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