All About the Exits…Revisited

Hedge and Gate

Back in June of 2016, I wrote this post about random entries and trailing exits. It turns out (on average) that you can beat buy-and-hold of the S&P 500 by simply buying members of the S&P 100 randomly, as long as you a) have a market-timing filter, and 2) have a trailing stop of 20%. Yes that’s right, just pick them at random! Here are the details of that original ‘system’ (it’s not really a system, more of a curiosity): Continue reading All About the Exits…Revisited

Writing Puts, Or Just Pretending To.

Which color do you like better? Green or brown? I’m partial to the green curve myself. That green curve comes from writing puts…sort of. Writing puts can be a lower volatility play that makes you money in choppy or flat markets, falls more softly in down markets, and seriously under-performs when the market goes on a tear upward.

Continue reading Writing Puts, Or Just Pretending To.

“Matt’s Breadth Indicator” Update

Happy new year! It’s that time again, when everyone with a blog does a wrap up of the previous year. Here’s my look-back.

Many of you follow along with the “+/-30% per quarter wider-market breadth indicator”. Which is too much of a mouthful, so I’ve humbly named it after myself instead. I wanted to provide an update since I’ve been tracking it for awhile.

Continue reading “Matt’s Breadth Indicator” Update

Divide By 20: One Year later

Happy New Year, one day early. Here’s wishing 2017 is successful for you in whichever way you define success.

Aren’t calendars wonderful? A couple of days ago, up pops a reminder on my calendar to revisit a post I did a year ago. At the very beginning of 2016, I wrote a post on whether yearly performance was mean-reverting, and found some interesting things. You might want to go back and take a look first, before you continue reading here.

Continue reading Divide By 20: One Year later